Comparison of Single Exponential Smoothing, Naive Model, and SARIMA Methods for Forecasting Rainfall in Medan

Arnita and Novriyana, Dina and Marpaung, Faridawaty and Anisa (2020) Comparison of Single Exponential Smoothing, Naive Model, and SARIMA Methods for Forecasting Rainfall in Medan. Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Komputasi (JMSK), 17 (1). pp. 117-128. ISSN 1858-1382; 2614-8811

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Abstract

This study aims to compare the best method on the forecasting system of rainfall in Medan using Single Exponential Smoothing (SES), Naive Model, and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) . The data used in this study is rainfall data for 10 years (2009 – 2019) source http://dataonline.bmkg.go.id/data_iklim. From the simulation by comparing existing method, the best model is SES with and value of MAPE (Mean Absolut Percentage Error) sebesar 2,47%. And then SARIMA (1,01,1)(4,0,3)12 whit value of MAPE is 2,93%. Both of this model is high accurate model because value of MAPE resulted < 10%.

Item Type: Article
Keywords: Exponential Smoothing; Forecasting; Naive Model; SARIMA
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics
Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA299 Analysis
Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA801 Analytic mechanics
Divisions: Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam > Matematika
Depositing User: Mrs Catur Dedek Khadijah
Date Deposited: 13 Mar 2023 03:58
Last Modified: 13 Mar 2023 04:17
URI: https://digilib.unimed.ac.id/id/eprint/51477

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