PROYEKSI PENDUDUK SUMATERA UTARA DENGAN MODEL PERTUMBUHAN LOGISTIK

Kardina, Sitti (2014) PROYEKSI PENDUDUK SUMATERA UTARA DENGAN MODEL PERTUMBUHAN LOGISTIK. Undergraduate thesis, UNIMED.

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Abstract

Sumatera Utara adalah propinsi terpadat keempat penduduknya di Indonesia. Berdasarkan hasil Sensus Penduduk (SP) tahun 2010 tercatat jumlah penduduknya sebanyak 12.985.075 jiwa. Luas wilayah Sumatera Utara 71.680,068 kilometer persegi. Jumlah penduduk setiap tahunnya terus meningkat. Tanpa usaha-usaha untuk membatasi pertumbuhan tersebut sangat dikhawatirkan hal ini dapat menimbulkan masalah kependudukan khususnya persaingan dalam mempertahankan hidup dan penggunaan sumber daya serta bukan tidak mungkin penduduk tidak akan tertampung lagi. Maka perlu diketahui jumlah penduduk untuk beberapa tahun ke depan dengan memproyeksikannya. Proyeksi jumlah penduduk dalam skripsi ini menggunakan model pertumbuhan logistik. Model ini digunakan untuk menghitung nilai carrying capacity atau daya tampung dan nilai laju pertumbuhan penduduk dengan menggunakan data Sensus Penduduk (SP) tahun 1990, 2000, dan 2010. Hasil yang diperoleh menunjukkan bahwa daya tampung Sumatera Utara adalah 20.072.176 dengan laju pertumbuhan 2,8 % per tahun. Model pertumbuhan logistik untuk Sumatera Utara yaitu N(t)=20.072.176/(1+0.957110274.e^(-0,280530733 t) ). Model ini mampu memproyeksikan jumlah penduduk Sumatera Utara dengan sangat baik karena nilai MAPE lebih kecil dari 10% yaitu 8, 17 %. Berdasarkan model ini jumlah penduduk Sumatera Utara diproyeksikan dari tahun 2011 hingga tahun 2045. Hasilnya direpresentasikan dengan Microsoft Excel dan Matlab dengan jumlah penduduk Sumatera Utara pada tahun 2045 berjumlah16.663.101 jiwa.Hasil proyeksi jumlah penduduk Sumatera Utara ini dapat dijadikan masukan dan pertimbangan pemerintah daerah dalam mempersiapkan perencanaan pembangunan baik dari sektor ekonomi, sumber daya alam, pendidikan, dan lain-lain serta mengendalikan pertumbuhan penduduk.

Item Type: Thesis (Undergraduate)
Contributors:
ContributionNameNIDN/NIDK
Thesis advisorSurya, Edy196710191992031003
Call Number: 519.5 Kar p
Keywords: Teori Penduduk; Proyeksi Penduduk; Persamaan Deferensial; Model Pertumbuhan Penduduk; Evaluasi Proyeksi Penduduk
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics
Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA273 Probabilities. Mathematical statistics
Divisions: Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam > Matematika
Depositing User: Mrs Fitri Sry Juliati Sinaga
Date Deposited: 08 Apr 2016 08:34
URI: http://digilib.unimed.ac.id/id/eprint/11808

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