ANALYSIS OF SUSCEPTIBLE, INFECTED, RECOVERED, SUSCEPTIBLE (SIRS) MODEL FOR SPREAD OF THE ACUTE RESPIRATORY TRACT INFECTIONS (ARI) DISEASE

Rangkuti, Yulita Molliq and Side, Syarifuddin and Harahap, Elvira Nanda Faramitri (2015) ANALYSIS OF SUSCEPTIBLE, INFECTED, RECOVERED, SUSCEPTIBLE (SIRS) MODEL FOR SPREAD OF THE ACUTE RESPIRATORY TRACT INFECTIONS (ARI) DISEASE. In: International Conference on Statistics, Mathematics, Teaching, and Research (ICSMTR 2015), 9-10 Oct 2015, Makassar.

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Abstract

ARI is an acute inflammation of the upper and lower respiratory tract caused by infection with microorganisms or bacteria, viruses, and rickets, without or with inflammation of the lung parenchyma, such that it can cause a spectrum of illnesses ranging from asymptomatic disease or mild infection to a deadly disease, depending on the causative pathogen. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze scientifically acceptable to the events of the spread of respiratory diseases. One of them can be seen in the form of a mathematical model, that is, Susceptible, Infected, Recovered, Susceptible (SIRS) model. Determination of equilibrium points and eigenvalue equation, as well as basic reproduction numbers (R_0) were done to analyze the stability of the model. From the analysis of model, it found that the free disease equilibrium point, model is asymptotically stable when R_0≤1, while for the endemic equilibrium point, model is asymptotically stable when R_0>1. It indicates that, the Bah Jambi district is free from the ARI disease. Collecting real data and simulation of the spread of ARI using the fourth order Runge-Kutta (RK4) was done to validity of model.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Keywords: Disease; Infected; Recovered; Susceptible; Respiratory
Subjects: Q Science > Q Science (General)
Q Science > QA Mathematics
Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA273 Probabilities. Mathematical statistics
R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA643 Disease (Communicable and noninfectious) and public health
Divisions: Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam > Matematika
Depositing User: Mrs Harly Christy Siagian
Date Deposited: 27 Jun 2016 08:18
URI: http://digilib.unimed.ac.id/id/eprint/6031

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