PEMODELAN INFLASI KOTA MEDAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE REGRESI NONPARAMETRIK B-SPLINE

Fauzi, Ahmad (2015) PEMODELAN INFLASI KOTA MEDAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE REGRESI NONPARAMETRIK B-SPLINE. Undergraduate thesis, UNIMED.

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Abstract

Inflasi adalah salah satu pertimbangan penting bagi investor untuk berinvestasi di suatu daerah. Prediksi inflasi yang akurat diperlukan bagi para investor dalam melakukan perencanaan yang matang. Salah satu metode untuk menentukan nilai prediksi inflasi adalah dengan menggunakan regresi nonparametrik B-Spline, regresi nonparametrik yang tidak tergantung pada asumsi-asumsi tertentu, sehingga dapat memberikan fleksibilitas yang lebih besar. Model B-Spline optimal bergantung pada knot optimal yang memiliki nilai minimum Generalized Cross Validation (GCV). Dengan menggunakan data tingkat inflasi perbulan Kota Medan dari Bulan Januari 2000 – Desember 2014, model Regresi Nonparametrik B-Spline optimal dalam penelitian ini adalah pada orde 2 (linear) dengan 1 knot, yaitu 0,54 dengan nilai GCV adalah 1.468589275372. Dengan nilai MSE yang tergolong kecil yaitu 0,0443 dan nilai MAPE sebesar 18,247% yang sehingga metode tergolong baik karena berada diantara 10 % dan 20 % Prediksi inflasi Kota Medan pada Januari 2015 sampai Desember 2016 berfluktuasi sekitar angka 0,9%, 0,8%,dan 0,7% serta inflasi di akhir Tahun 2016 adalah 0.7088902%

Item Type: Thesis (Undergraduate)
Contributors:
ContributionNameNIDN/NIDK
Thesis advisorSurya, Edy196710191992031003
Call Number: SK-2016 MAt 015
Keywords: Inflasi; B-Spline; Generalized Cross Validation
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory. Demography
H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory. Demography > HB135 Mathematical economics
Divisions: Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam > Matematika
Depositing User: Mr Maknun
Date Deposited: 14 May 2016 04:17
URI: http://digilib.unimed.ac.id/id/eprint/5238

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