EARLY DETECTION OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

The paper examines the early detection model of the financial crisis of developing countries. The model used is APT Multifactor and Early Warning System. Data analysis using this is Vector Autoregression. The results show that most developing countries are particularly vulnerable to financial crises derived from exchange rates rather than from financial or stock positions. The most appropriate model in early detection of developing country financial crisis is the control of exchange rate and stock stability. Long-term foreign exchange reserves can be used as a model to detect financial crisis.