PERBANDINGAN METODE DES (DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING) DAN METODE TES (TRIPLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING) PADA PERAMALAN PRODUKSI MINYAK KELAPA SAWIT (CPO) INDONESIA TAHUN 2020-202

Sapitri, Meli (2020) PERBANDINGAN METODE DES (DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING) DAN METODE TES (TRIPLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING) PADA PERAMALAN PRODUKSI MINYAK KELAPA SAWIT (CPO) INDONESIA TAHUN 2020-202. Undergraduate thesis, UNIMED.

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Abstract

Peramalan (forecasting) merupakan suatu langkah yang penting dalam pembuatan perencanaan bagi setiap organisasi bisnis dan untuk setiap pengambilan keputusan yang baik. Metode peramalan Double Exponential Smoothing Brown merupakan salah satu metode peramalan data berkala (time series) yang dirancang untuk suatu data yang memuat unsur trend. Metode Triple Exponential Smoothing merupakan metode yang cocok untuk peramalan data fluktual atau mengalami gelombang pasang surut. Dalam penelitian ini, data jumlah produksi minyak kelapa sawit (CPO) pada PR, PBN dan PBS Indonesia tahun 2011-2019 mengindikasikan adanya pola data trend. Data yang diperoleh kemudian dianalisis dengan menggu- nakan metode Double Exponential Smoothing dan Triple Exponential Smoothing dan mencari forecast error terkecil berdasarkan Mean Absolute Deviasi (MAD) dan Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) terkecil dari dua pengujian metode tersebut. Nilai parameter α terbaik yang digunakan untuk meramalkan jumlah produksi Indonesia tersebut adalah pada metode Double Exponential Smoothing PR α = 0, 7 dengan MAD = 174.088, 16 dan persentase error = 0, 0178, PBN yaitu α = 0, 5 dengan MAD = 184.554, 14 dan persentase error = 0, 0809, serta PBS α = 0, 76 dengan MAD = 417.752, 63 dan persentase error = 0, 0277.

Item Type: Thesis (Undergraduate)
Contributors:
ContributionNameNIDN/NIDK
Thesis advisorChairunisah, 198105172005012001
Call Number: SK-2020 MAT 103
Keywords: Double exponential smoothing; Triple exponential smoothing; Mean absolute deviasi; Mean absolute percentage error; Peramalan; Produksi; Minyak kelapa sawit
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics
Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA273 Probabilities. Mathematical statistics
Divisions: Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam > Matematika
Depositing User: Mrs Harly Christy Siagian
Date Deposited: 01 Nov 2021 05:25
URI: http://digilib.unimed.ac.id/id/eprint/43572

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