PENERAPAN METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING UNTUK MERAMALKAN HASIL PRODUKSI PADI DI SUMATERA UTARA

Ambarita, Hotria Kristina (2020) PENERAPAN METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING UNTUK MERAMALKAN HASIL PRODUKSI PADI DI SUMATERA UTARA. Undergraduate thesis, UNIMED.

[img] Text
1. NIM. 4153230013 COVER.pdf - Published Version

Download (0B)
[img] Text
2. NIM. 4153230013 APPROVAL SHEET.pdf - Published Version

Download (0B)
[img] Text
3. NIM. 4152230023 ABSTRACT.pdf - Published Version

Download (0B)
[img] Text
4. NIM. 4153230013 PREFACE.pdf - Published Version

Download (0B)
[img] Text
9. NIM. 4153230013 CHAPTER I.pdf - Published Version

Download (0B)
[img] Text
13. NIM. 4153230013 CHAPTER V.pdf - Published Version

Download (0B)
[img] Text
14. NIM. 4153230013 BIBLIOGRAPHY.pdf - Published Version

Download (0B)
[img] Text
5. NIM. 4153230013 TABLE OF CONTENT.pdf - Published Version

Download (0B)
[img] Other (Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox)
lightbox.jpg - Published Version

Download (0B)
[img] Other (Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_preview)
preview.jpg - Published Version

Download (0B)
[img] Other (Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_medium)
medium.jpg - Published Version

Download (0B)
[img] Other (Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_small)
small.jpg - Published Version

Download (0B)
[img] Other (Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes)
indexcodes.txt - Published Version

Download (0B)
[img] Other (Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes)
indexcodes.txt - Published Version

Download (0B)
[img] Other (Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes)
indexcodes.txt - Published Version

Download (0B)
[img] Other (Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes)
indexcodes.txt - Published Version

Download (0B)
[img] Other (Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes)
indexcodes.txt - Published Version

Download (0B)
[img] Other (Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes)
indexcodes.txt - Published Version

Download (0B)
[img] Other (Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes)
indexcodes.txt - Published Version

Download (0B)
[img] Other (Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes)
indexcodes.txt - Published Version

Download (0B)
[img] Other (Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox)
lightbox.jpg - Published Version

Download (0B)
[img] Other (Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_preview)
preview.jpg - Published Version

Download (0B)
[img] Other (Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_medium)
medium.jpg - Published Version

Download (0B)
[img] Other (Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_small)
small.jpg - Published Version

Download (0B)
[img] Other (Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox)
lightbox.jpg - Published Version

Download (0B)
[img] Other (Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_preview)
preview.jpg - Published Version

Download (0B)
[img] Other (Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_medium)
medium.jpg - Published Version

Download (0B)
[img] Other (Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_small)
small.jpg - Published Version

Download (0B)
[img] Other (Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox)
lightbox.jpg - Published Version

Download (0B)
[img] Other (Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_preview)
preview.jpg - Published Version

Download (0B)
[img] Other (Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_medium)
medium.jpg - Published Version

Download (0B)
[img] Other (Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_small)
small.jpg - Published Version

Download (0B)
[img] Other (Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox)
lightbox.jpg - Published Version

Download (0B)
[img] Other (Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_preview)
preview.jpg - Published Version

Download (0B)
[img] Other (Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_medium)
medium.jpg - Published Version

Download (0B)
[img] Other (Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_small)
small.jpg - Published Version

Download (0B)
[img] Other (Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox)
lightbox.jpg - Published Version

Download (0B)
[img] Other (Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_preview)
preview.jpg - Published Version

Download (0B)
[img] Other (Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_medium)
medium.jpg - Published Version

Download (0B)
[img] Other (Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_small)
small.jpg - Published Version

Download (0B)
[img] Other (Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox)
lightbox.jpg - Published Version

Download (0B)
[img] Other (Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_preview)
preview.jpg - Published Version

Download (0B)
[img] Other (Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_medium)
medium.jpg - Published Version

Download (0B)
[img] Other (Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_small)
small.jpg - Published Version

Download (0B)
[img] Other (Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox)
lightbox.jpg - Published Version

Download (0B)
[img] Other (Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_preview)
preview.jpg - Published Version

Download (0B)
[img] Other (Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_medium)
medium.jpg - Published Version

Download (0B)
[img] Other (Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_small)
small.jpg - Published Version

Download (0B)

Abstract

Peramalan forecasting merupakan perkiraan sesuatu yang belum terjadi atau yang akan terjadi diwaktu yang akan datang. Metode peramalan Double Exponential Smoothing Linier Satu Parameter dari Brown merupakan salah satu model ramalan data berkala (time series) yang dirancang untuk suatu data yang memuat unsur trend. Seperti diketahui, beras merupakan olahan dari padi yang menjadi makanan pokok bagi masyarakat Indonesia. Karena fungsinya yang paling penting, diperlukan perencanaan yang matang untuk mencukupi kebutuhan akan permintaan yang datang dari penduduk. Untuk itu diperlukan suatu indikator yang dapat menunjukkan peningkatan dan penurunan jumlah produksi padi terhadap kebutuhan yang diinginkan. Dengan data jumlah produksi padi di Sumatera Utara mulai tahun 2007-2018 akan diramalkan jumlah produksi padi di Sumatera Utara untuk tahun 2019-2021. Data yang diperoleh kemudian dianalisis menggunakan metode Double Exponential Smoothing Linier Satu Parameter dari Brown, untuk mencari forecast error terkecil berdasarkan Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) terkecil. Nilai parameter α terbaik yang digunakan untuk meramalkan jumlah produksi padi tersebut adalah 0,31 dengan persentase error sebesar 0,019% dan menghasilkan persamaan ramalan F_(t+m)=4.655.779+172.765,5(m).

Item Type: Thesis (Undergraduate)
Contributors:
ContributionNameNIDN/NIDK
Thesis advisorSinaga, Marlina Setia197405272005012001
Call Number: SK-2020 MAT 11
Keywords: Double exponential smoothing; Mean absolute percentage error; Peramalan; Tanaman padi; Analisis deret waktu
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics
Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA273 Probabilities. Mathematical statistics
Divisions: Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam > Matematika
Depositing User: Mrs Harly Christy Siagian
Date Deposited: 29 Oct 2021 08:32
URI: http://digilib.unimed.ac.id/id/eprint/43560

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item