Ambarita, Hotria Kristina (2020) PENERAPAN METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING UNTUK MERAMALKAN HASIL PRODUKSI PADI DI SUMATERA UTARA. Undergraduate thesis, UNIMED.
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Abstract
Peramalan forecasting merupakan perkiraan sesuatu yang belum terjadi atau yang akan terjadi diwaktu yang akan datang. Metode peramalan Double Exponential Smoothing Linier Satu Parameter dari Brown merupakan salah satu model ramalan data berkala (time series) yang dirancang untuk suatu data yang memuat unsur trend. Seperti diketahui, beras merupakan olahan dari padi yang menjadi makanan pokok bagi masyarakat Indonesia. Karena fungsinya yang paling penting, diperlukan perencanaan yang matang untuk mencukupi kebutuhan akan permintaan yang datang dari penduduk. Untuk itu diperlukan suatu indikator yang dapat menunjukkan peningkatan dan penurunan jumlah produksi padi terhadap kebutuhan yang diinginkan. Dengan data jumlah produksi padi di Sumatera Utara mulai tahun 2007-2018 akan diramalkan jumlah produksi padi di Sumatera Utara untuk tahun 2019-2021. Data yang diperoleh kemudian dianalisis menggunakan metode Double Exponential Smoothing Linier Satu Parameter dari Brown, untuk mencari forecast error terkecil berdasarkan Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) terkecil. Nilai parameter α terbaik yang digunakan untuk meramalkan jumlah produksi padi tersebut adalah 0,31 dengan persentase error sebesar 0,019% dan menghasilkan persamaan ramalan F_(t+m)=4.655.779+172.765,5(m).
Item Type: | Thesis (Undergraduate) | ||||||
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Call Number: | SK-2020 MAT 11 | ||||||
Keywords: | Double exponential smoothing; Mean absolute percentage error; Peramalan; Tanaman padi; Analisis deret waktu | ||||||
Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA273 Probabilities. Mathematical statistics |
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Divisions: | Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam > Matematika | ||||||
Depositing User: | Mrs Harly Christy Siagian | ||||||
Date Deposited: | 29 Oct 2021 08:32 | ||||||
URI: | http://digilib.unimed.ac.id/id/eprint/43560 |
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