PENERAPAN METODE AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (ARIMA) UNTUK MERAMALKAN KUNJUNGAN WISATAWAN KE KABUPATEN KARO

Sinulingga, Ruth Rani (2021) PENERAPAN METODE AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (ARIMA) UNTUK MERAMALKAN KUNJUNGAN WISATAWAN KE KABUPATEN KARO. Undergraduate thesis, UNIMED.

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Abstract

Kabupaten Karo adalah salah satu daerah wisata yang diminati oleh wisatawan, karena daerah ini memiliki ciri khas tersendiri dengan suhu udara yang sejuk dan bersih. Pariwisata di Kabupaten Karo merupakan salah satu sektor tumpuan yang diharapkan dapat memberikan kontribusi besar dalam ekonomi. Sehingga wisatawan memegang peranan penting terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi dari sektor pariwisata. Dengan menggunakan data historis kunjungan wisatawan beberapa waktu yang lampau, maka dapat diprediksi berapa jumlah kunjungan wisatawan yang terjadi pada masa yang akan datang. Pada penelitian ini, metode peramalan yang digunakan untuk meramalkan kunjungan wisatawan ke Kabupaten Karo adalah metode ARIMA. Data yang digunakan adalah data kunjungan wisatawan ke Kabupaten Karo pada Januari 2010 sampai Oktober 2020. Berdasarkan penelitian yang telah dilakukan, diperoleh model terbaik untuk peramalan kunjungan wisatawan ke Kabupaten Karo adalah model ARIMA (12,0,0) dengan nilai AIC sebesar 20,49 dan nilai MAPE sebesar 8,05%. Dengan model ARIMA (12,0,0) hasil peramalan kunjungan wisatawan pada 12 bulan yang akan datang, jumlah kunjungan wisatawan tertinggi terjadi pada bulan Januari 2021 sebesar 38320 orang dan kunjungan wisatawan terendah terjadi pada April 2021 sebesar 18327 orang.

Item Type: Thesis (Undergraduate)
Contributors:
ContributionNameNIDN/NIDK
Thesis advisorRitonga, Arnah198012162005012003
Call Number: SK-2021 MAT 114
Keywords: Wisatawan; Peramalan; Pariwisata; Time series; Autoregressive integrated moving average
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > G Geography (General) > G154 Travel and state. Tourism
Q Science > QA Mathematics
Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA273 Probabilities. Mathematical statistics
Divisions: Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam > Matematika
Depositing User: Mrs Harly Christy Siagian
Date Deposited: 04 May 2021 13:35
URI: http://digilib.unimed.ac.id/id/eprint/42057

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