PERAMALAN CURAH HUJAN DI KOTA MEDAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE FUZZY TIME SERIES

AFNISA, NUR (2019) PERAMALAN CURAH HUJAN DI KOTA MEDAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE FUZZY TIME SERIES. Undergraduate thesis, UNIMED.

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Abstract

Kota Medan memiliki variabilitas curah hujan yang tinggi. Untuk mengetahui perubahan dalam pola curah hujan, prediksi tingkat curah hujan dirancang untuk melihat dan menganalisis pola curah hujan yang akan terbentuk di masa depan. Fuzzy Time Series adalah konsep yang dapat digunakan untuk memprediksi masalah dimana data historis dibentuk dalam nilai linguistik. Sedangkan data terbaru sebagai hasilnya adalah dalam bentuk bilangan real. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk meramalkan curah hujan di kota Medan dan untuk menentukan peramalan terbaik berdasarkan periode waktu per bulan dan per dua minggu menggunakan metode Fuzzy Time Series. Hasil peramalan curah hujan di kota Medan untuk periode waktu per bulan yaitu bulan Juli 2019 sebesar 282.32 dan untuk hasil peramalan curah hujan di kota Medan untuk periode waktu per dua minggu yaitu pada tanggal 26 Juni – 9 Juli 2019 sebesar 122.222. Dalam penelitian ini dilihat MAPE terkecil untuk melihat peramalan terbaik. Peramalan Fuzzy Time Series Chen untuk periode waktu per bulan memberikan MAPE = 19.711 %, dan peramalan Fuzzy Time Series Chen untuk periode waktu per dua minggu memberikan MAPE = 80.602 %. Jadi peramalan terbaik untuk meramalkan curah hujan di kota Medan adalah peramalan Fuzzy Time Series Chen untuk periode waktu per bulan.

Item Type: Thesis (Undergraduate)
Contributors:
ContributionNameNIDN/NIDK
Thesis advisor, ArnitaNIDN0021067609
Thesis advisor-, -UNSPECIFIED
Call Number: SK-2020 MAT 004
Keywords: Peramalan, Fuzzy Time series Chen, MAPE
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics
Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA440 Geometry. Trigonometry. Topology
Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA75.5 Electronic computers. Computer science
Divisions: Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam > Matematika
Depositing User: Mrs Yuni Chairani
Date Deposited: 12 Feb 2020 11:43
URI: http://digilib.unimed.ac.id/id/eprint/38393

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